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canada goose coats DUBAI, Sept 15 (Reuters) Most of the Gulf rich Canada Goose Outlet oil exporting economies will cope comfortably with an era of buy canada goose jacket rising interest rates, but fund flows within the Gulf may shift and fragile state finances in the less wealthy countries will become more exposed. Canada Goose Jackets interest rate Canada Goose Coats On Sale hike in more than eight years, which is likely to be the first of a series as the Federal Reserve slowly returns to normal policy after the global financial canada goose factory sale crisis. canada goose coats
Canada Goose online A Fed meeting this week will release fresh economic and interest rate projections that, some analysts believe, could open the door to a rate hike as soon as March. dollar assets, sucking liquidity from other economies. Canada Goose online
buy canada goose jacket cheap As a whole, the Gulf is better equipped to withstand this threat than canada goose coats almost any other region in the world. Its huge current account and state budget surpluses mean it does not need to rely uk canada goose outlet on external financing, so it does not need to fear tighter global liquidity as many other emerging markets do. dollar allowing large interest rate gaps to open up could be destabilising. Higher interest rates look certain to slow economies to some degree. buy canada goose jacket cheap
Canada Goose Jackets And within the Gulf, some countries and markets will fare better than others. Bahrain and Oman, which don have big canadian goose jacket surpluses, may be among the relative losers. Dubai, its economy heavily dependent on its interest rate sensitive real estate sector, may also fare less well. Canada Goose Jackets
canada goose clearance sale will be slower, inflation lower and capital inflows higher, James Reeve, deputy chief economist at Samba Financial Group in London, said of the Gulf. canada goose clearance sale
canada goose deals Saudi Arabia, the cheap Canada Goose region biggest economy, will continue growing but oil prices expected to drift, I think the rate hike will come at a time of slowing growth, which is obviously not ideal. rate canada goose store hikes start, Gulf central banks are expected to follow suit quite quickly some of them within days, local central bank officials and money market traders say. canada goose deals
canadian goose jacket Kuwait has canada goose coats on sale slightly more freedom than Canada Goose sale the Canada Goose Online others because it does not have a direct currency peg to the dollar but uses an undisclosed currency basket, which analysts believe is dominated by the dollar. interest rates were falling canada goose uk black friday in 2008, buy canada goose jacket cheap some central banks in the six nation Gulf Cooperation Council canada goose clearance sale were able to delay following the Fed. For example, Qatar central bank did not change its policy rates between September 2008 and August 2010 even after the Fed slashed its rates near zero. rates are on the way canadagooseoutlete up, Gulf central banks are expected to respond much more quickly, in order to eliminate the possibility of capital outflows destabilising their markets. monetary policy, canada goose black friday sale but this is relatively small and cannot be sustained over time given the peg to cheap canada goose uk the dollar, said Farouk Soussa, Citigroup chief economist for the region. canadian goose jacket
canada goose rising Fed rates will canada goose mean a rise in GCC rates, whenever that happens. canada goose
canada goose black friday sale The impact on economic growth canada goose uk outlet in the GCC looks likely to be minor, however. That is because Gulf interbank money markets are still Canada Goose online shallow and primitive compared to markets in developed countries, limiting the impact on local deposit and lending rates of official rate hikes especially at the start of a tightening cycle, economists say. canada goose black friday sale
canada goose clearance Since GCC banks are less dependent on the money markets than their foreign counterparts, obtaining cash through other means such as deposit growth and retained earnings, corporate lending rates in the Gulf may not rise as abruptly as in other regions. canada goose clearance
buy canada goose jacket A 2012 working paper on monetary policy transmission in the GCC by the International Monetary Fund found a 1 percentage point jump by uk canada goose the Fed funds rate would tend to reduce non oil gross domestic product in the canada goose uk shop GCC by only around 0.1 percent not much for economies growing at rates of around 4 percent. buy canada goose jacket
Canada Goose sale Fiscal policy remains much more important than monetary policy in driving GCC economies. The budget surpluses of major Gulf governments suggest state spending will stay strong even if growth slows from recent canada goose clearance years rapid pace unless oil prices fall steeply for a long period. Canada Goose sale
canada goose store The biggest impact of interest Canada Goose Outlet rate hikes in the Gulf would probably be on inflation; M2 money supply would be reduced Canada Goose Parka by 0.6 percent and consumer price levels by 0.8 percent 10 quarters after the interest rate shock, the IMF study estimated canada goose store.