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buy canada goose jacket After cheap Canada Goose all, most of the reserves were built in the past decades when SG was experiencing tremendous growth. I also guess that there is this Confucian canada goose clearance sale value of leaving stuff for the future but there is a need to be fair.
canada goose coats on sale Leaving 100% to the future is obviously unfair to the present generation, but leaving 0% to the future is also unfair to the future.
canadian goose jacket Besides, I have also mentioned that even the NIRC is a form of Canada Goose Parka leverage:
If our investments hit a bad period of a decade or so, with actual/realized returns below what is drawn out under NIR, we will end up dipping into our reserves.
Example: SG expects real long term returns of 5% on 1T reserves. So the uk canada goose government is allowed to draw out 25 billion a year to fund its budget.
Canada Goose online But if there is a stretch of time that we are getting zero real returns or even negative (provided the expected long term return % does not up fast enough), while we continue drawing out up to 25 billion a year, the canada goose uk outlet reserves will slowly deplete.
cheap Canada Goose After Indranee Rajah countered on Facebook.
canada goose clearance This suggestion assumes various things:
it assumes buy canada goose jacket an additional canada goose coats on sale 10% of NIR (from 50% to 60%) will always give you the same amount as a 2% GST increase
canada goose black friday sale this in turn assumes that the amount of returns generated by our reserves will always be the same. However, even with the NIR framework (which essentially smooths out volatility by taking a longer term expected return), long term investment returns can still vary or fall. We can never eliminate investment risk.
Canada Goose Parka it also assumes that we will never have to draw on the principal amount of reserves on which the returns are generated ( Not a wise assumption given we that we had to draw on the principal back in 2009 during the global financial crisis)
Canada Goose sale it assumes you can get canadian goose jacket the same returns on a principal amount Canada Goose Coats On Sale that is growing at a slower rate. Again, not a safe assumption. When we use more, we save less, which in turn means less is reinvested. That means we will have less to spend over the long term. This is short term gain, at the expense of future gain.
canada goose store The greater the percentage of NIR we use, the more the risks are magnified.
canada goose clearance sale We take canada goose store 50% to be fair and prudent use half now, and leave half for the future. We should continue this for as long as we can, in canada goose uk shop order to both preserve and grow our inheritance.
Donald Low then posted up a follow up, agreeing to disagree.
Just to be clear, I’m not saying that there is no cost to having a higher spending limit than the current one Canada Goose Online of 50 percent. Of course there is; there’s no such thing as a free lunch. The main cost is that, everything else constant, our reserves will grow at a slower rate. If the long term rate of return on the reserves is 5 percent, the 50 canada goose coats percent rule means that the reserves are growing at 2.5 percent canada goose uk black friday per annum. cheap canada goose uk If the spending cap were raised to 60 percent, the reserves will accumulate at a slower rate of 2.0 percent. (Admittedly, this analysis is quite simplistic as the rate of reserves accumulation depends on many other factors, not least the amount of revenue raised from land sales which are locked up as reserves).
canada goose The difference between 2.0 percent and 2.5 percent may canada goose clearance not seem like much. buy canada goose jacket cheap But over a 30 year time horizon, it translates to a 16 percent difference in alifeoutofdebt the value of the principal. your discount rate. The more you value the present, uk canada goose outlet the higher your discount rate and the more you will favour Canada Goose Jackets accumulating at a slower rate. canada goose You will thus support a higher spending limit. Canada Goose Outlet Conversely, if you’re very patient and you value the future more, you will have a lower discount rate and you will not support my suggestion. (For those who are interested, the Andrew Haldane speech, «Growing, Fast and Slow» that I posted a few days https://www.alifeoutofdebt.com ago is an excellent analysis of the historical relationship between patience and economic growth.)
canada goose deals Anyway, the point is that this is an area where reasonable people (and economists) can, and often, disagree. So there’s no need for name calling. As I said, it all depends on your inter temporal preference. My reason for supporting a higher spending limit and hence canada goose black friday sale a slower rate of reserve accumulation is that future generations are likely to be richer than the current generation entering retirement. But you’re of course free to disagree with my optimism.
Canada Goose Jackets Another cost to raising the spending limit is a procedural/political one. It requires a change to the Constitution.
canada goose coats YE: Here the thing. The Trisolaran Interstellar Fleet is composed canada goose factory sale of incredibly massive spaceships. Accelerating them is a slow process. One tenth the speed of light is only their maximum speed, but they cannot cruise at this speed for long before decelerating as they approach the Earth. Canada Goose online Also, the source of propulsion for Canada Goose sale the Trisolaran ships is matter antimatter annihilation. In front of each ship is a large magnetic field shaped like a funnel to collect antimatter particles from space. This collection process is slow, and only after a long wait can it gather enough antimatter to allow the ship to accelerate for a brief period. Thus, the fleet’s acceleration occurs in spurts, interspersed by long periods of coasting to collect fuel. This is why the time it takes the Trisolaran Fleet to reach the solar system is ten times longer than the flight time of a small probe.