Time Warner Rebuff of Fox May Not Just Be Negotiating Ploy

Rupert Murdoch tends to finish what he starts. So from the moment the news broke last month that Time Warner Inc. had rejected an $80 billion bid by Mr. Murdoch’s 21st moncler sale online Century Fox, the assumption on Wall Street and in the media world was that it was only a matter of time before a deal was struck.

Since then, though, Time Warner has made it clear that it views Fox’s approach as a hostile takeover, and best moncler jackets it has refused to negotiate with Fox.

And so the mating ritual begins, as both sides engage in the gamesmanship that accompanies all high level merger negotiations. But Time Warner’s unyielding stance has at least some analysts wondering if an acquisition really cheap moncler jackets womens is inevitable.

«I think uk moncler outlet this deal is not going to be as simple as people first thought,» moncler outlet said Michael Nathanson, of MoffettNathanson, the research firm. «I think people underestimated the resolve of Time Warner’s management and its board.»

In the coming weeks, their energy will be focused on winning moncler sale outlet the support of the large number of shareholders with big stakes in both companies. Time Warner’s chief executive, Jeffrey L. Bewkes, and his top executives will try to persuade these stockholders that the company is already poised for a period of rapid growth. It is a strategy that will theoretically work on two levels: convincing investors that Time Warner is positioned to succeed on its own, and signaling to Mr. Murdoch that he has grossly undervalued the company.

Hanging in the balance is the biggest media merger in a decade, one that would bring together the two largest movie and television studios in Hollywood and give Fox a live sports portfolio that could rival that of ESPN.

Time Warner was involved in the industry’s last merger of this scale: Its disastrous combination with AOL during the peak of the dot com bubble is seared into the company’s institutional memory and may even be informing its resistance to Fox’s offer.

This is a very different moment in media history. Size has become its own virtue, as entertainment companies scramble to keep pace with the consolidation among cable providers and to better position themselves to fight off content challenges from Silicon Valley.

As is invariably the case in moncler outlet prices takeover attempts, neither party wants to seem too eager for a union. In this context, it is impossible to know how much of Time Warner’s resolve is just a negotiating tactic.

«If the price is right, he’ll do the right thing for shareholders,» Rich Greenfield of BTIG Research said of Mr. Bewkes. uk moncler sale «Price fixes everything.»

The question is what that moncler uk outlet price is. Fox’s initial offer valued the company at $85 a share. People familiar with Fox’s plans say a second bid would most likely be in the $90 to $95 range.

Mr. Bewkes, 62, is under contract with Time Warner through 2017. His total compensation in the 2013 fiscal year was $32.5 million. He has a generous exit package: Fox’s initial offer would have netted him more than $95 million.

There’s little question that Mr. Bewkes has the confidence of his board and the good will of investors: When he first took over the moncler sale outlet company in 2008, its shares discount moncler jackets traded as low as $14. But he lifted the stock price not by acquiring properties but by shedding them, making his company a natural takeover target. He could face skepticism from shareholders who want to know why the company’s ambitious growth plans are not already reflected in its stock price, which has risen considerably since Fox’s bid.

Time Warner still has two of the most coveted assets in media: HBO, which consistently churns moncler outlet sale out hit shows, and a group of valuable sports broadcast deals.

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The big test for Time Warner will come this fall, when it unveils its growth strategy to investors. People briefed on the company’s plans say it intends to squeeze far more money out of HBO, both in the United States and abroad. In addition to a national advertising campaign, it is moncler usa planning to sell streaming subscriptions, currently available only https://www.monclerdownjacket.biz in Scandinavia, in a number of countries, and to expand its online presence in the United States too. Earlier this year, it licensed some HBO cheap moncler sale programming to Amazon in a multiyear deal believed to be worth about $300 million, but it held back such popular shows as «Game of Thrones» and «Entourage,» which could be sold in lucrative deals still to come. and moncler outlet online Major League Baseball to negotiate higher fees from cable providers to carry its TNT and TBS cable networks, according to people inside the company briefed on the plans who declined to be identified because the company has not yet disclosed its strategy.

From Time Warner’s point of view, the problem with Fox’s offer was not just its valuation of the company. It was the fact that 60 percent of the bid came in the form of Fox stock. Last month, Fox secured more than $9 billion in a sale of its Italian and German pay TV business, and it could raise even more cash by borrowing money and by selling off most of the Turner networks, including CNN, HLN and TruTV.

It would still be a stock heavy deal, though. As such, Time Warner is trying moncler womens jackets to highlight moncler outlet store to investors the uncertainty surrounding the company’s leadership. cheap moncler jackets mens Chase Carey, 21st Century Fox’s widely respected president and chief operating officer, is signed only through the end of 2015. Even if Fox extended his contract as part of the deal, the $150 billion company would moncler outlet woodbury probably moncler sale soon be run by Mr. Murdoch’s 41 year old son, James.

Time cheap moncler coats mens Warner is also trying to stir up doubts about the prospects of a combined entity, underscoring the potential for regulatory concerns and playing up the possibility of a culture clash between the generally liberal, purely public Time Warner, and the conservative, essentially family run Fox. Time Warner has even gone so far as to gird itself against the prospect of a Murdoch inspired shareholder revolt by changing its bylaws to moncler online store remove a provision allowing stockholders to call a special board meeting.

For its part, Fox has said that it does not cheap moncler jackets expect the government to raise any substantive concerns about the merger. It has also said that its networks broadcast plenty of progressive programming, including «Glee» and reruns of the ABC show «Modern Family.»

Even discounting for the usual gamesmanship, Fox’s leadership has been surprised by the vehemence of Time Warner’s opposition, according to people at the company. They say Mr. Murdoch expected Time Warner’s management to at least be willing to engage in a dialogue.

Once Time Warner made its resistance to Fox’s offer clear, Mr. Murdoch made a strategic decision not to take an overtly hostile approach by publicly announcing his bid. Instead, he used the leaked news of the offer to try to put pressure on Time Warner to negotiate, and to open the door for investor conversations of his own. In these discussions, Fox will stress that it can provide a powerful international platform for Time Warner’s content, and that the combined company would be able to realize at least $1 billion a year in cost savings.

Thus far, Fox has signaled that it is not going to overpay for Time Warner. Mr. Murdoch said in a statement last week that «21st Century Fox’s No. 1 priority is increasing shareholder value in a disciplined manner.»

Of course, this too is part of the mating ritual. «I think this comes down to how badly does Rupert want it,» said Mr. Greenfield, the BTIG Research analyst. «I presume he didn’t start this process lightly.».